When I Was Young

CHANNEL NEWSASIA

The Primetime morning interview

Jennifer Alejandro, jennifer@channelnewsasia.com

"I was past being angry. I was emotionally drained."

Thum Cheng Cheong, 46, received his biggest career blow last November. He was laid off from a European bank where he was the chief of legal and credit administration.

It happened so fast, he was shocked. He got the notice midday, putting an abrupt stop to a 16-year career in the banking.

At first he thought it was good to spend more time with his family. "It seemed like a good opportunity to rest and relax, because when would you get such a long break from work?"

But the worry set in fairly quickly, once Thum realised his job search was not yielding results. The worry was compounded by the knowledge that Singapore was caught in the midst of a global recession.

For help, he decided to turn to his passion for mind-mapping, and it turned out to be the answer he had hoped for.

Thum, a regular at mind-mapping workshops conducted by international author Tony Buzan since 2004, remembers thinking, "There were no jobs in banking at my level so I might as well take a risk. I have been assisting mind-mapping seminars for a couple of years now, so I asked myself, why not make my hobby a full time job?"

In January, the former banker and lawyer called up the local office of the Tony Buzan Learning Centre. With his track record, he was hired almost immediately as a mind-mapping trainer and in-house legal counsel.

He now moderates three workshops a week and does administrative legal work for the learning centre. He earns only half of his old salary but Thum said: "I'm happy that I could get this chance to tell people my story and do something I love."

I learned about Thum's story while researching for a series. Many have shared wonderful and touching stories with me. I remember a 51-year-old man who was retrenched by a local bank in November after 29 years in its customer service department. For almost two months, he attended job fairs and consulted agencies for assistance.

As luck would have it, a surprise came just in time for the New Year. Through a friend, he landed an interview at a secondary school and was hired as a teacher.

These are real-life survivors — people open to trying something they might never have considered, who had the courage to face up to change. After all, many of life's "second acts" begin only after a crisis.

We are looking for people who have re-invented themselves and got the better of retrenchment. If you have a story to tell, email second_act@channelnewsasia.com. Turn that page. Everybody deserves a second chance.

From TODAY, Plus – Weekend, 25/56-April-2009

COPING WITH THE RECESSION

Flexibility will impress future employers, Gan tells youth who raise discrimination concerns

ESTHER NG, estherng@mediacorp.com.sg

AS A fresh graduate, do I really have to accept a blue-collar job?

This plaintive question — sent via SMS by a participant in the audience, who worried that it would affect one’s shot at a PMET job after the economy recovers — drew some laughter as it was read aloud.

But Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong was in earnest as he advised this participant, and the other 80 or so youthful participants at the dialogue session with Young NTUC, to be flexible when jobhunting in a downturn. He urged them to “take up any job that is available”, as there would always be “opportunities to upgrade later on”.

Say an employer asks why you’ve not been working for the past one year — do you answer that there were “no jobs available”?

“Employers will not believe because there are always jobs available,” said Mr Gan. “Employers will think ... if in a crisis situation you’re willing to sit at home and do nothing, it means that you’re not flexible.”

For instance, Mr Gan revealed his “dream job” had been to teach, but the closest he got to it was as Minister of State for Education.

“The important thing is not to look for things we like to do, but to like the things that you’re doing”, he stressed, reiterating that many jobs are available in the fields of early childhood education, tourism, science and technology.

The two-hour forum at NTUC Centre yesterday involved mostly young unionists, and the issues they raised centred on the recession and other hurdles for graduates in the job market.

One asked: Are there enough training places for everyone, and should they look to upgrade their skills in an area they like — or train for where there is a market need?

Giving his assurance of sufficient training resources and capacity, Mr Gan advised job-seekers to approach the Employment and Employability Institute or Community Development Councils, where “career consultants” will help match their abilities with “market needs”. Training comes in where there is a mismatch, he said.

Ms Joyce Wong, 21, wondered if local graduates with degrees from private institutions enjoy equal job prospects as graduates from the three local universities.

Ms Mabel Siew, 23, wanted to know why applicants are compelled to disclose whether they are bankrupt and their medical conditions. Should they answer truthfully? “Because if you do, chances are you may not get the job,” she told Today later.

Both were hoping for some form of anti-discrimination legislation, but were not surprised when Mr Gan said the Government would “rather not legislate because the employer can get information through other means”.

He advised job applicants to be “honest” and, if they encounter discrimination, to approach the Tripartite Centre for Fair Employment.

On recognition of degrees, he said: “Even if you put up legislation, when you apply, (employers) can choose not to accept.” Rather, it’s up to private education providers to market themselves — like UniSIM, which has “built up its reputation” and “companies are happy with their graduates”, said Mr Gan.

The question about a CPF cut also cropped up. Mr Gan’s reply: There would not be one “for the time being”.

“Let’s focus on pushing ahead with Spur (Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience) and Jobs Credit.

“I think Jobs Credit has been very effective in helping companies manage their cost of employing local workers... We also have Workfare Income Supplement and so on — we need to get these implemented,” he said.

From TODAY – 20-April-2009

FINANCIAL MELTDOWN

Talk about the end of the crisis could be premature — dangerously so

PAUL KRUGMAN, xtra@mediacorp.com.sg

BEN Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, sees “green shoots”. President Obama sees “glimmers of hope”. And the stock market has been on a tear.

So is it time to sound the all-clear? Here are four reasons to be cautious about the economic outlook.

1 Things are still getting worse. Industrial production just hit a 10-year low. Housing starts remain incredibly weak. Foreclosures, which dipped as mortgage companies waited for details of the Obama administration’s housing plans, are surging again.

The most you can say is that there are scattered signs that things are getting worse more slowly — that the economy isn’t plunging quite as fast as it was. And I do mean scattered: The latest edition of the Beige Book, the Fed’s periodic survey of business conditions, reports that “five of the 12 Districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline”. Whoopee.

2 Some of the good news isn’t convincing. The biggest positive news in recent days has come from banks, which have been announcing surprisingly good earnings. But some of those earnings reports look a little... funny.

Wells Fargo, for example, announced its best quarterly earnings ever. But a bank’s reported earnings aren’t a hard number, like sales; for example, they depend a lot on the amount the bank sets aside to cover expected future losses on its loans. And some analysts expressed considerable doubt about Wells Fargo’s assumptions, as well as other accounting issues.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs announced a huge jump in profits from Q4, 2008 to Q1, 2009. But as analysts quickly noticed, Goldman changed its definition of “quarter” (in response to a change in its legal status), so that — I kid you not — the month of December, which happened to be a bad one for the bank, disappeared from this comparison.

I don’t want to go overboard here. Maybe the banks really have swung from deep losses to hefty profits in record time. But scepticism comes naturally in this age of Madoff.

Oh, and for those expecting the Treasury Department’s “stress tests” to make everything clear: The White House spokesman, Robert Gibbs, says that “you will see in a systematic and coordinated way the transparency of determining and showing to all involved some of the results of these stress tests”. No, I don’t know what that means, either.

3 There may be other shoes yet to drop. Even in the Great Depression, things didn’t head straight down. There was, in particular, a pause in the plunge about a year-and-a-half in — roughly where we are now. But then came a series of bank failures on both sides of the Atlantic, combined with some disastrous policy moves as countries tried to defend the dying gold standard, and the world economy fell off another cliff.

Can this happen again? Well, commercial real estate is coming apart at the seams, credit card losses are surging and nobody knows yet just how bad things will get in Japan or Eastern Europe. We probably won’t repeat the disaster of 1931, but it’s far from certain that the worst is over.

4 Even when it’s over, it won’t be over. The 2001 recession officially lasted only eight months, ending in November of that year. But unemployment kept rising for another year and a half. The same thing happened after the 1990-91 recession. And there’s every reason to believe that it will happen this time too. Don’t be surprised if unemployment keeps rising right through 2010.

Why? “V-shaped” recoveries, in which employment comes roaring back, take place only when there’s a lot of pent-up demand. In 1982, for example, housing was crushed by high interest rates, so when the Fed eased up, home sales surged. That’s not what’s going on this time: Today, the economy is depressed, loosely speaking, because we ran up too much debt and built too many shopping malls, and nobody is in the mood for a new burst of spending.

Employment will eventually recover — it always does. But it probably won’t happen fast.

So now that I’ve got everyone depressed, what’s the answer? Persistence.

History shows that one of the great policy dangers, in the face of a severe economic slump, is premature optimism. Franklin D Roosevelt responded to signs of recovery by cutting the Works Progress Administration in half and raising taxes; the Great Depression promptly returned in full force. Japan slackened its efforts halfway through its lost decade, ensuring another five years of stagnation.

The Obama administration’s economists understand this. They say all the right things about staying the course. But there’s a real risk that all the talk of green shoots and glimmers will breed a dangerous complacency.

So here’s my advice, to the public and policymakers alike: Don’t count your recoveries before they’re hatched. THE NEW YORK TIMES

WEEKEND XTRA

From WEEKEND TODAY, Business – 18, 19-April-2009

AIRLINE WOES

SINGAPORE Airlines (SIA) and Cathay Pacific Airways may soon have to go down the path that Qantas took earlier this week when the Aussie carrier slashed its profit forecast and announced 1,750 job cuts, say analysts.

“All airlines in Asia will have to make similar tough decisions,” said Mr Jim Eckes, managing director of industry adviser Indoswiss Aviation. “With traffic falling so rapidly, it’s going to be difficult for many airlines to make a profit.”

Traffic for Asia-Pacific carriers sank almost 13 per cent in February, the steepest decline since June, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata).

Qantas is examining measures, such as passengers tagging their own bags or checking in via mobile phone, to further cut costs.

“If your top line has fallen off the cliff, then you have to adjust your costs,” said Mr Christopher Wong, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia in Singapore. “Whether it’s cutting headcount or reducing working hours, that’s the only thing airlines can adjust.”

Already, SIA — which gets 40 per cent of its revenue from premium travel — is removing 17 per cent of its fleet starting April, slashing work days and freezing management wages and negotiating with pilots to take unpaid leave.

Cathay has also offered staff unpaid leave, curbed capacity growth and delayed a new cargo terminal in the city after posting a loss of HK$7.9 billion ($1.5 billion) in the second half. Its chairman Christopher Pratt last month said the aviation industry was in a “crisis”.

Mr Eckes said Asia Pacific airlines might be the hardest hit by the crisis because of their dependence on premium travellers. Filling up the coach-class seats won’t be enough to compensate for lack of premium travellers.

“Business demand has dropped sharply since August and that’s hurting profits,” said Makoto Murayama, an analyst Nomura Securities in Tokyo. “Things are going to get worse.”

Premium travel dropped the most in Asia in January, falling 23 per cent within the region, and 25 per cent on routes across the Pacific, according to Iata. BLOOMBERG

From TODAY, Business - Thursday, 16-April-2009